India: Stainless steel market shows bearish trends amid global uncertainties

The stainless steel market in India has been consistently witnessing a decline in prices, primarily due to multiple factors including global uncertainties, reduction in raw material prices, declining futures prices, and subdued demand. SteelMint assessments show that 304-HRC is currently priced at INR 199,000-201,000/t ($2,393-2,417/t), while 304 grade CRC is in the range of INR 210,000-212,000/t ($2,525-2,549/t) exw-Mumbai. Domestic scrap prices remain stable w-o-w.

Market participants are encountering liquidity challenges, and in view of the ongoing festive season and global uncertainties stakeholders are preferring to maintain cash reserves. Furthermore, the demand outlook does not align with expectations, particularly in segments related to consumer durables and white goods. Market participants anticipate a drop in major mills’ final prices by the end of this month.

A trade source highlighted: “The prevailing domestic market conditions are characterised by tightness during the upcoming Diwali festival season. It appears that this quarter poses challenges for sales, as sales across white goods and infrastructure segments in India have experienced a notable decline.”

In addition, it is worth noting that both China’s domestic and export markets for stainless steel have declined, and imports to India remain subdued partly due to prevailing geopolitical tension.

SteelMint has also learned from an unconfirmed source that the finance ministry is considering imposing countervailing duties on import of  products made of 200-series stainless steel from China.

In a positive development, Jindal Group recently made a significant contribution to the Namo Bharat train project by supplying 600 t of premium-grade stainless steel. According to secondary sources, the stainless steel will be used in the production of 66 newly built train carriages.

Raw materials overview

• Ferro chrome: Following OMC’s chrome ore auction yesterday, India’s ferro chrome market has witnessed a notable lack of trade activities. Indian ferro chrome prices (HC60%, Si:4%) decreased by INR 2,000/t w-o-w. As per SteelMint’s assessment, high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) prices stood at INR 112,000/t.
  
  
• Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices remained range-bound w-o-w. According to SteelMint’s assessment, Indian ferro molybdenum prices stood at INR 2,625,000/t exw-Nagpur on 60% pro rata basis.
  
  
• LME nickel: Three-month nickel futures on the LME stood at $18,385/t. This stability is attributed to a slight increase in nickel inventories.
  
  

Outlook

Market participants anticipate that the trajectory of future prices is likely to show a downtrend, primarily influenced by subdued demand dynamics and the decline in raw material prices.